The “America decline theory” claims the U.S. is in irreversible decline, but this is largely a myth. While concerns rise amid economic or political setbacks, history shows the U.S. recovers from crises. Often exaggerated, “decline” is relative—especially compared to rising powers like China—while ignoring U.S. strengths in innovation, military, and soft power. Political motives also shape the rhetoric. In reality, U.S. challenges reflect normal global shifts, not inevitable collapse.
Distinguishing Decline from Collapse in National Analysis
A common logical error, whether made intentionally or unintentionally, is the conflation of decline with collapse. Many critics of the United States fall into this trap, assuming that any perceived weakening of the nation necessarily signals an imminent collapse. However, this reasoning is flawed because decline and collapse are fundamentally different phenomena. Decline refers to a gradual reduction in influence, power, or economic growth, whereas collapse implies a rapid, catastrophic breakdown of institutions, governance, or societal order. Conflating the two leads to misleading conclusions about the state of a nation.
To illustrate, Japan has experienced a prolonged period of economic and demographic stagnation for nearly three decades. Yet, despite this long-term decline, there are no signs that the country has collapsed. This demonstrates that a nation can endure extended periods of decline without approaching the point of systemic failure. Applying this distinction to the United States, it is premature and unhelpful to predict collapse. While the U.S. may face challenges or relative decline in certain areas, there are currently no indicators of an imminent breakdown. Blindly belittling the United States on the basis of selective or short-term observations ignores this crucial distinction between decline and collapse.
Recognizing this difference is essential for meaningful analysis. Decline should be understood as a gradual and manageable process, whereas collapse is an extreme and often sudden event. The absence of collapse does not imply the absence of challenges or decline; conversely, signs of decline do not justify predictions of catastrophic failure. In assessing the United States or any other nation, careful attention to these nuances allows for a more accurate, balanced, and constructive understanding of national trends.
Absolute Strength vs. Relative Decline: Rethinking U.S. Power
Using the argument that the United States remains strong as evidence that it has not declined fails to distinguish between absolute and relative measures of power. The continued achievements of the United States—such as its ability to attract immigrants, develop technological breakthroughs like ChatGPT, Sora, and SpaceX’s Starship—demonstrate its ongoing strength but do not preclude the possibility of relative decline. Strength in absolute terms does not automatically translate into dominance or unchallenged global influence, and the conflation of these two concepts often leads to misleading conclusions.
It is particularly striking that one of the most frequently cited indicators of U.S. strength today is its leadership in generative artificial intelligence. Some observers overestimate the implications of these technological achievements, assuming that global market share and profits—whether in Israel, Australia, or the European Union—are inevitably being lost to competitors such as BYD or Tesla. Historical parallels are instructive: in the 1920s, Britain invented television, and in the 1940s, it developed electronic computers, arguably the most transformative inventions of the 20th century. Yet the United States leveraged these British innovations to establish global dominance for the subsequent seventy years. This example illustrates that a nation can maintain absolute strength while simultaneously experiencing relative decline, as superior positions can be transferred or contested without the disappearance of a country’s accomplishments.
The United States Today: Growth Amid Structural Decline and Challenges
The United States today presents a paradox of simultaneous development and decline. On one hand, core indicators such as population, GDP, total consumption, investment in technology research and development, and military expenditure continue to grow, reflecting undeniable aspects of national development. On the other hand, deeper structural challenges suggest a different story. Research indicates that the U.S. has lower intergenerational mobility than many other developed countries, meaning that children born into lower-income families face significant barriers to upward economic mobility. Contributing factors include stagnant wages, rising costs of education and healthcare, housing inequality, and regional disparities, which collectively hinder social cohesion and long-term economic vitality.
Consumer spending has increased in aggregate, yet this growth masks significant underlying weaknesses. Car sales, for instance, remain far below levels seen at the end of the Cold War, despite a smaller population at that time. Meanwhile, expenditures on healthcare, education, and services such as insurance and legal fees have risen sharply, but without corresponding improvements in outcomes, contributing to declining national satisfaction. Military spending continues to climb year by year; however, the effectiveness of production and operations has stagnated, resulting in a strategic contraction of American military power. In essence, many of the country’s core indicators are inflated, projecting external strength while concealing internal vulnerabilities. Simultaneously, internal social friction and polarization are intensifying, eroding national synergy and morale—a hallmark of the decline of great powers.
From an internal perspective, the decline of the United States is closely linked to the erosion of its middle class, the social and economic backbone of the nation. As the middle class diminishes in size and influence, the country experiences a corresponding decline in societal morale and cohesion. Externally, U.S. industrial competitiveness is waning. Once-dominant industries, including automobiles, aerospace, film, cultural creation, communications, and the Internet, have lost ground or are in the process of losing it. Iconic symbols of American industrial and cultural leadership, such as Hollywood and Boeing, are facing major challenges. Furthermore, several popular digital platforms used by Americans for entertainment and shopping are now Chinese-owned, reflecting the shifting landscape of global technological and commercial influence. Even promising sectors, such as generative artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles, while notable, remain relatively small components of the overall U.S. economy. Tesla, for example, increasingly relies on Chinese production and faces competition from companies like BYD, highlighting the country’s struggle to maintain industrial leadership.
This industrial dilemma contrasts sharply with the U.S. experience in the 1970s and 1980s, when even amid signs of relative decline, the country maintained a robust industrial base and global dominance. Today, the United States faces a dual challenge: the rise of strong competitors, most notably China, and the hollowing out of its domestic manufacturing capacity. Ambitious projects, such as NASA’s Artemis program aiming for a crewed Moon landing before 2030, illustrate the consequences of these weaknesses. Supply chain vulnerabilities, workforce shortages, and a weakened industrial foundation pose significant obstacles to achieving these goals. Without addressing these structural challenges, both internal cohesion and external competitiveness may continue to erode, exemplifying the complex coexistence of development and decline in contemporary America.
related articles:
From “GM” to “Wall Street”: U.S. Financialization and China’s Rise
The Rise of the Wall Street–Washington Corridor
China’s Industrial Rise: Dominance Amid Global Exclusion
Assessing the Challenges and Future Trajectory of U.S. Global Power
The notion of a “decline of the United States” has emerged multiple times throughout history, yet the country has repeatedly demonstrated a remarkable capacity for self-correction and innovation. While the United States has experienced severe economic downturns, including recessions and the Great Depression of the 1930s, these periods did not fundamentally interrupt the long-term trajectory of American development and expansion. Even during the economic turmoil of the 19th century, the nation continued to extend its territory and consolidate its influence. Similarly, the Great Depression, though catastrophic, did not halt the broader rise of the United States as a global power.
From the 1960s to the 1980s, the United States faced significant economic and social challenges. The outsourcing of manufacturing, competition from a rising Western Europe and Japan, and the costs of the Vietnam War contributed to societal strain and a perception of decline. However, this period also marked an era of remarkable technological and educational advancement. The United States remained the center of global innovation, fostering highly skilled white-collar labor and creative research and development. While some social dynamics originating in this period—such as the rise of non-governmental organizations and political correctness—would later contribute to domestic tensions, the nation continued to upgrade its industries and drive social progress through technological innovation.
In contrast, the contemporary United States faces fundamentally different challenges. Although the population, labor force, and pool of talent have grown, the efficiency of talent utilization appears stagnant or even declining. Rising societal divisions and widespread dissatisfaction highlight structural weaknesses within the country. Coupled with the accelerated rise of China and the erosion of American industrial advantages, these trends suggest that reversing economic and social stagnation may be increasingly difficult. Unlike earlier periods, when the United States benefited from global dominance that provided abundant talent and financial resources, today’s strategic environment is far more contested. The erosion of American hegemony in military, financial, and technological spheres implies that its influence may diminish, potentially preventing the United States from maintaining its status as a superpower.
Comparisons with post-war Britain are limited in relevance. Although Britain experienced relative decline in the 1960s and 1970s, it remained one of the world’s leading economies due to the limited number of developed nations and its subsequent alignment with the United States. By contrast, the potential decline of the United States would occur in a multipolar world, where emerging powers like China and India could rival or surpass American economic scale. If such a scenario unfolds, the United States may not retain a position within the global top five economies by 2050. History underscores the unpredictability of such transformations: in 1990, few would have believed that three decades later the Soviet Union’s GDP would be less than one-fifth of China’s—a stark reminder that even seemingly dominant powers can be overtaken.
Strategic Implications of a Gradual U.S. Decline for China
The decline of the United States, while often noted in global discourse, has so far been relatively mild. Projections suggest that a more severe economic slowdown may occur around 2030, potentially resulting in consistently negative GDP growth. From the perspective of China’s national interests, a relative weakening of the United States could offer certain strategic advantages. However, this development is a mixed blessing for the world at large, as global stability and prosperity remain closely tied to the economic and political health of the United States.
China’s current rise bears notable parallels to the ascent of the United States a century ago, highlighting both opportunities and responsibilities. Likewise, the decline of the United States today warrants careful attention from China itself. It underscores the need for foresight and strategic planning to mitigate future vulnerabilities, prolong national development, and create favorable conditions for managing China’s own eventual challenges. In essence, while the relative weakening of the United States may provide short-term benefits, prudent leadership requires that China remain vigilant and proactive to safeguard long-term stability and growth.