Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World (MIT Press, 2013) offers a sophisticated analysis of Lee Kuan Yew’s geopolitical legacy and the think tanks that shaped his strategic vision. By 2026, the distance between his mid-1990s and early-2010s perspectives and contemporary global realities provides a compelling “stress test” for his theories on statecraft, inviting a critical reassessment of his insights on international relations, power dynamics, and the challenges of governance.
Predictions That Remain Broadly True or Partly Valid
Enduring American Influence in a Shifting World Order
Lee Kuan Yew foresaw that the United States would maintain its position as the preeminent global power for decades, grounded in its economic scale, military reach, technological leadership, and institutional resilience. He rejected deterministic predictions of American decline, instead highlighting adaptability and innovation as central to the nation’s long-term strength.
By 2026, Lee’s assessment remains largely validated. The U.S. continues to lead economically by nominal GDP, which stands at approximately $29 trillion, and sustains a network of key alliances, including NATO, AUKUS, and the Quad. The U.S. dollar remains the dominant global currency, accounting for over 58 percent of official reserves, and American military expenditure exceeds $900 billion annually—far surpassing the combined spending of the next ten countries.
At the same time, the global landscape has grown more multipolar. China now surpasses the U.S. in PPP-adjusted GDP, and emerging powers in the Global South are asserting greater autonomy. While the United States retains unmatched influence, this rising multipolarity constrains its capacity to act unilaterally, reflecting a nuance that Lee may have understated in his projections. Nevertheless, his core insight—that the U.S. remains a central pillar of global power—continues to hold true, underscoring its resilience and enduring strategic significance.
Sustaining America’s Edge in Innovation and Technology
Lee Kuan Yew admired the United States for its culture of risk-taking, its integrated university-industry-military innovation ecosystem, and its unparalleled capacity to attract top global STEM talent. He saw these qualities as core drivers of America’s technological leadership and a central pillar of its enduring global influence.
As of 2026, the U.S. continues to lead in foundational research and frontier technologies. It remains at the forefront of artificial intelligence, large language models, quantum computing, and semiconductor design, with companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple setting global benchmarks. The nation still attracts significant global talent, though challenges such as immigration bottlenecks and political polarization have begun to temper this advantage.
Meanwhile, China has made remarkable strides in applied technology. It dominates deployment-scale industries such as electric vehicles—BYD overtaking Tesla in 2023—battery production, supplying roughly 40 percent of the world through CATL, and 5G infrastructure development. Competition remains intense across AI ethics, green energy, and hardware manufacturing, highlighting that while American innovation continues to be a core strength, its supremacy faces growing challenges in practical applications. Ultimately, Lee’s foresight remains largely accurate: the U.S. retains a robust technological edge, even as global rivals narrow the gap.
Predictions or Views That Have Not Held Up Well
America’s Resilience Amid Structural Challenges
Lee Kuan Yew rejected arguments that the United States was destined for long-term decline, emphasizing the resilience of its institutions, entrepreneurial culture, and capacity for renewal. He viewed these factors as buffers against structural decay, allowing the U.S. to adapt and maintain global preeminence despite cyclical challenges.
By 2026, the U.S. remains far from systemic collapse, but significant vulnerabilities have emerged. Federal debt has surpassed 130 percent of GDP, with interest payments of roughly $1.2 trillion now exceeding defense spending. Chronic fiscal deficits, political gridlock, and gaps in critical infrastructure, including broadband and public transit, reveal persistent structural strains that Lee may have underestimated.
Social indicators also point to underlying fragilities. Declining life expectancy among working-class whites underscores the uneven effects of economic and health challenges, highlighting areas where institutional dynamism has not fully mitigated societal stagnation. While the U.S. continues to wield substantial global influence and retains the capacity for adaptation, these fiscal, political, and social pressures indicate that resilience is not limitless. Lee’s core insight remains valid: the nation is not in systemic decline—but its challenges are more complex and entrenched than he had anticipated.
The Limits of American Primacy in a Multipolar Era
Lee Kuan Yew projected that the United States would remain the sole superpower for decades following the Cold War, anticipating unchallenged primacy based on its economic, military, and institutional advantages. He envisioned a global order in which American influence would go largely uncontested, enabling the U.S. to shape international norms, alliances, and strategic outcomes.
By 2026, however, the world has evolved into a multipolar system. China now rivals the U.S. economically and technologically, the European Union wields substantial regulatory and soft power, and regional actors such as India, Turkey, and Brazil increasingly assert autonomy in global affairs. The BRICS+ coalition has expanded to include over ten nations, collectively accounting for more than 40 percent of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms, highlighting the diffusion of economic influence.
No single power dominates critical domains such as climate finance, artificial intelligence governance, or semiconductor supply chains, reflecting a more contested and fragmented global landscape. While the United States remains a central pillar of global leadership, Lee’s expectation of uncontested superpower status proves overly optimistic. The reality of shared and negotiated influence demonstrates that U.S. primacy endures but in a context far more complex than the era of post-Cold War unipolarity suggested.
Multiculturalism and America’s Enduring Vitality
Lee Kuan Yew expressed concern that immigration, particularly the growth of the Hispanic population, might erode U.S. civic culture, warning that multiculturalism could “destroy America.” He feared that rapid demographic change might weaken social cohesion, dilute shared values, and challenge the nation’s cultural foundations.
By 2026, however, these concerns appear overstated. Immigration has proven to be a source of demographic and economic vitality, sustaining workforce growth and driving innovation across industries. Second- and third-generation immigrants integrate effectively, excelling in language, education, and professional achievement, while contributing to the country’s social and cultural fabric.
Immigrant entrepreneurship has also been transformative. More than half of U.S. unicorn startups were founded by immigrants, and their influence extends to soft power arenas, including Hollywood, music, and cuisine. Far from undermining the nation, multiculturalism has reinforced America’s dynamism and global appeal, demonstrating that diversity can be a strategic asset rather than a liability. Lee’s cultural alarm, though reflective of genuine anxieties about cohesion, underestimated the capacity of the U.S. to integrate diverse populations while maintaining social and economic strength.
Assessing Civility and Social Order in Contemporary America
Lee Kuan Yew argued that U.S. culture exhibited signs of breakdown, citing guns, drugs, and urban crime as evidence of societal decay. He portrayed these issues as symptomatic of deeper cultural disorder, raising concerns about the stability and resilience of American society.
By 2026, the data suggest a more nuanced reality. Violent crime has largely stabilized or declined since the early 2020s, with murders falling by approximately 20 percent by 2025. Gun-related deaths and the opioid crisis, while significant, are concentrated in specific regions and do not represent a nationwide collapse.
Civil society remains robust, with active volunteerism, civic engagement, and community initiatives continuing to play central roles in American life. The degree of cultural deterioration implied by Lee is not borne out empirically; while challenges persist, they coexist with strong institutional and social resilience. U.S. society demonstrates that disorder is not pervasive and that civic structures maintain a considerable capacity for adaptation and renewal.
U.S. Dynamism Endures Despite Social Program Expansion
Lee Kuan Yew warned that adopting Europe-style social welfare policies would undermine American dynamism, stifling entrepreneurship, innovation, and economic growth. He feared that expansive government support could reduce incentives for risk-taking and erode the flexibility that had historically driven U.S. prosperity.
By 2026, however, these concerns have not materialized. Expanded social programs—including healthcare subsidies, unemployment support, and clean energy incentives—operate alongside a highly flexible labor market. The U.S. continues to sustain GDP growth of 2–3 percent, surpassing many European economies, while venture capital investment exceeds $200 billion annually, fueling entrepreneurial activity and innovation.
Productivity growth has also been reinforced by rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and other transformative technologies. The coexistence of moderate welfare expansion with sustained economic dynamism demonstrates that American creativity and entrepreneurial vigor remain resilient. Lee’s prediction that social support programs would doom the nation’s dynamism proves overly pessimistic, highlighting the adaptability of the U.S. economic model in balancing social provision and market-driven growth.
Nuanced Realities in U.S.-China-Pacific Dynamics
Lee Kuan Yew emphasized that U.S. leadership in Asia was vital for maintaining global primacy, stressing that influence in the region underpinned both strategic security and economic leverage. He envisioned a scenario in which American alliances and forward presence would deter regional challengers and secure stability.
By 2026, the reality is more complex. The United States has deepened alliances with Japan, the Philippines, and Australia, maintaining a credible forward presence that underpins regional security. At the same time, China has expanded its economic and technological influence through Belt and Road projects, RMB-denominated trade, and electric vehicle exports, creating alternative centers of leverage.
Most Asian nations now hedge between U.S. security guarantees and Chinese economic engagement, reflecting a balance of interests rather than clear-cut dominance by either power. Lee’s strategic focus on Asia proves prescient, but the challenge is one of managed competition and influence rather than absolute U.S. dominance or inevitable decline. The outcome underscores the nuanced nature of contemporary geopolitics, where foresight must accommodate complexity and shared influence.
Summary: What Lee Got Wrong or Inaccurate (as of 2026)
Overstated claims or inaccuracies:
- U.S. is not in systemic, irreversible decline — fiscal and institutional vulnerabilities are deeper than expected.
- U.S. would remain a sole superpower — reality is multipolar, with China, the EU, and regional powers sharing influence.
- Multicultural immigration would destroy society — immigration has fueled growth without cultural collapse.
- U.S. cultural breakdown (crime, disorder) as defining national decline — national indicators show resilience.
- European-style welfare would doom dynamism — U.S. remains innovative and economically competitive.
Partly right:
- U.S. innovation and talent attraction remain core strengths, though competition is rising.
- Demographic and economic competition with China was correctly anticipated, but the outcome is still evolving in a managed multipolar framework.
Key Takeaways
Lee Kuan Yew’s broad strategic insight—that the United States would remain a global powerhouse—has largely held true. His confidence in American resilience, meritocracy, and adaptive capacity was well founded, and the U.S. in 2026 continues to wield significant economic, technological, and geopolitical influence. At the same time, many of his sharper warnings—particularly about cultural decline, immigration, and unchallenged global primacy—have proven overstated. Today, the U.S. is a powerful yet imperfect giant: navigating fiscal pressures, geopolitical competition, and domestic polarization within a multipolar world. Lee’s principal blind spot may have been underestimating the limits of institutional flexibility and the constraints that domestic political and social divisions impose on America’s capacity for self-correction.
References
- Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the world. Lee Kuan Yew. The MIT Press, 2013.