China’s state sets goals, takes risks, and builds scale, while firms compete and innovate—an integrated system the market-driven U.S. struggles to match.
This thought experiment assumes that by 2035 China has not surpassed the U.S.–Taiwan axis at the absolute semiconductor frontier. TSMC and its partners continue to dominate leading-edge logic at 2nm–1.4nm, along with high-end AI training and peak transistor density and efficiency. China’s strategic position is instead bounded by clear limits: at the upper end, near-complete … Read more
The rise and decline of semiconductor industries are seldom the product of isolated technological breakthroughs or individual genius. Rather, they are shaped by market structure, sustained cash flow, and the passage of time—conditions that allow capability, cost efficiency, and scale to compound. China’s rapid ascent in electric vehicles demonstrates this logic clearly: success emerged not … Read more
Tsien Hsue-shen (Qian Xuesen) was more than a scientist—he played a pivotal role in shaping China’s modern scientific and engineering strategy. Tsien Hsue-shen and the Architecture of China’s Scientific Power Tsien Hsue-shen’s historical significance does not rest on the resolution of a single technical challenge or the invention of a particular device. His true contribution … Read more
Ren Zhengfei’s stewardship of Huawei reflects an uncommon combination of long-term vision, holistic thinking, and flexible resilience. More than a technologist or executive leader, he operates as a master strategist, designing robust organizational systems that allow Huawei to endure and evolve amid geopolitical constraints and technological disruption. His leadership choices have not only defined Huawei’s … Read more
The collapse of the Soviet Union raises a central question: could reform have preserved it? Interpreted on China’s terms, the contrast is clear. China survived prolonged upheaval by undertaking systemic transformations that built not only industrial capacity but a resilient industrial ecosystem, balanced authority with internal checks, and fostered strategic autonomy. These foundations allowed later … Read more
China’s state-led capitalism operates through a dual-track system that distinguishes market-driven enterprises from state-function entities. Firms overseen by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) compete, generate profits, and undergo market-oriented restructuring, while a parallel set of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under the Ministry of Finance function as instruments of national policy, safeguarding fiscal stability, … Read more
One of the most consequential strategic mistakes the United States made in the last century was its failure to pursue large-scale, long-distance water diversion projects during its period of peak national strength from the 1950s to the 1970s. By missing this critical window, the nation forfeited the opportunity to address water scarcity in its central … Read more
China will still generate major, highly successful companies, but they are more likely to arise from capital-driven growth and platform expansion—such as ByteDance or Tencent—rather than from the kind of organically built industrial powerhouse represented by Huawei. The specific historical, political, and economic conditions that enabled Huawei’s rise are unlikely to occur again, meaning future … Read more
Over the past several decades, the West—especially the United States—has drifted into what anthropologist David Graeber termed a “big idea famine,” marked by a decline in transformative innovation despite abundant capital and talent. Military and strategic technological progress has slowed as ethical hesitation, bureaucratic inertia, and weak prioritization constrain experimentation, while the civilian tech sector … Read more
In The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West (2025), Alexander C. Karp and Nicholas W. Zamiska argue that the United States, particularly Silicon Valley, has the potential to revive a mission-driven technological culture, but only by breaking free from the ideological constraints that have dominated since the 1980s. These … Read more