The U.S. shed factories and the skills around them, while China accepted inefficiency to build complete industrial systems and long-term manufacturing power.
Across sharply different political systems and historical paths, Germany, Japan, and China share a foundational commitment the United States abandoned:manufacturing is a strategic national system that requires deliberate institutional support, not a residual sector left to market punishment. In each case, capital allocation, labor relations, education and training, and state policy are organized around sustaining … Read more
Rare earth elements are neither truly scarce in nature nor an inherent, singular point of existential weakness for the United States. Their strategic importance instead arises from their role as a high-leverage chokepoint within modern industrial supply chains. The most complex, capital-intensive, and environmentally demanding stages—midstream refining and downstream magnet production—are overwhelmingly concentrated in China. … Read more
The Cold War, lasting roughly from 1947 to 1991, shaped global geopolitics, economics, and technology. Its consequences were uneven: some nations were immediate short-term beneficiaries, while others gained in the long term. This analysis categorizes the effects on major countries and regions and explores China’s unique position. I. The United States: The Ultimate Winner? 1. … Read more
1. A General Assessment of “We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse” The July 14, 2025 New York Times article, “We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse,” by David Autor and Gordon Hanson, presents a forceful intervention in the debate over U.S.–China economic … Read more
Ren Zhengfei’s stewardship of Huawei reflects an uncommon combination of long-term vision, holistic thinking, and flexible resilience. More than a technologist or executive leader, he operates as a master strategist, designing robust organizational systems that allow Huawei to endure and evolve amid geopolitical constraints and technological disruption. His leadership choices have not only defined Huawei’s … Read more
The collapse of the Soviet Union raises a central question: could reform have preserved it? Interpreted on China’s terms, the contrast is clear. China survived prolonged upheaval by undertaking systemic transformations that built not only industrial capacity but a resilient industrial ecosystem, balanced authority with internal checks, and fostered strategic autonomy. These foundations allowed later … Read more
China will still generate major, highly successful companies, but they are more likely to arise from capital-driven growth and platform expansion—such as ByteDance or Tencent—rather than from the kind of organically built industrial powerhouse represented by Huawei. The specific historical, political, and economic conditions that enabled Huawei’s rise are unlikely to occur again, meaning future … Read more
Over the past several decades, the West—especially the United States—has drifted into what anthropologist David Graeber termed a “big idea famine,” marked by a decline in transformative innovation despite abundant capital and talent. Military and strategic technological progress has slowed as ethical hesitation, bureaucratic inertia, and weak prioritization constrain experimentation, while the civilian tech sector … Read more
In The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West (2025), Alexander C. Karp and Nicholas W. Zamiska argue that Western technology ecosystems—most notably Silicon Valley—drifted away from strategically consequential “hard tech,” becoming instead preoccupied with convenience, lifestyle innovation, and short-term shareholder value. This shift, they contend, left critical domains of … Read more
In The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West (2025), Alexander C. Karp and Nicholas W. Zamiska present China not only as a technological and commercial rival, but as the central catalyst for a profound moment of reckoning for the West. While the prevailing discourse in Silicon Valley often vacillates … Read more