The liberal internationalist belief that global trade and interdependence would democratize and “Westernize” authoritarian regimes like China, prevalent in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, is widely seen as having significantly undermined U.S. security and global position by the 2020s. This outcome was largely a result of several critical miscalculations and unintended consequences. The Core Belief … Read more
The belief among U.S. academia and policymakers in the 1990s and 2000s that design/innovation could be perfectly separated from manufacturing was a cornerstone of their globalization strategy. This was rooted in several economic theories and a particular view of economic development. However, with hindsight, the consequences of this separation – the loss of industrial base, … Read more
During the 1990s to 2010s, Western scholars and policymakers, influenced by post-Cold War overconfidence and the assumption of uncontested U.S. dominance, largely failed to foresee the emergence of near-peer rivals such as China. The “Unipolar Moment” and “End of History” (Post-Cold War Euphoria) The collapse of the Soviet Union left the United States as the … Read more
The gap between China’s strength in concrete, real-economy areas—such as infrastructure, manufacturing, renewable energy, and high-speed rail—and the U.S.’s command of the FIRE sectors (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate) stems from deep-seated structural, ideological, and institutional distinctions that have developed over the last three to four decades. State-Led Development vs. Market-Driven Capitalism China has adopted a … Read more
Western academia and policymakers frequently highlight issues like “overcapacity,” debt risks, political repression, or corruption to argue that China’s model is inherently unsustainable. These arguments are often rooted in ideological frameworks emphasizing liberal democracy, privatization, and universal Western values. However, despite these persistent criticisms and predictions of impending collapse, they have largely failed to diminish … Read more
The hollowing out of the U.S. industrial base has severely impaired its ability to scale innovations from laboratory breakthroughs to mass production, especially in hardware-intensive sectors like advanced batteries, semiconductors, power electronics, and clean energy. The key failure lies not in invention, but in industrial translation—the critical mid-stage that connects research to scalable, market-ready manufacturing. … Read more
The complacent Western view that Chinese students—trained in rote learning and conformity—would be incapable of innovation led many in Western academia and policymaking circles to underestimate China’s technological rise. This misjudgment rested on cultural stereotypes, outdated theories of innovation, and a Western-centric understanding of creativity. This complacency was a critical intellectual blind spot. Misunderstanding of … Read more
The belief that China would inevitably follow the path of political and economic liberalization after the collapse of the Dissolution of the Soviet Union proved misguided. This expectation rested on the assumption that market reforms would naturally lead to democratization and that Chinese firms lacked the capacity to innovate or compete technologically. In reality, this … Read more
The ideas of free trade, limited government, and laissez-faire markets, championed by theorists such as Milton Friedman, arose within a specific historical and ideological context, despite historical evidence of successful state-led development in cases such as Japan and South Korea. The Intellectual Origins of Free Market Thought The intellectual foundations of free market thought trace … Read more
The story of U.S. assistance in integrating China into the global economy—culminating in America’s support for China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001—has, over the past two decades, contributed to U.S. complacency and overconfidence. The Narrative of “U.S.-Enabled China” In 2001, China formally joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), an event widely … Read more